Lessons from Moneyball: Part 2

This is the second installment of a series of posts inspired by the reading of Michael Lewis’s Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. The book tells the story of how the Oakland A’s and general manager Billy Beane used unconventional wisdom to win. Faced with a very low budget, the Beane and the A’s competed with the richest teams in baseball.  The innovative approach was so successful that it changed how teams were put together. Major League Baseball and the United Methodist Church have some things in common. Perhaps, a different kind of sabermetrics can help the UMC move forward.

“Managers tend to pick a strategy that is least likely to fail rather than pick a strategy that is most efficient,” said Palmer. “The pain of looking bad is worse that the gain of making the best move.” Pete Palmer in Moneyball, p. 80

So, there are runners on first and third with no outs. How does the manager call the situation? Do you call a straight steal? Do you hit and run? Do you call for a bunt?

Actually, the most efficient call to make is allowing the hitter to swing away. You do not have to give up an out for a run by sacrificing. You do not have to take the bat out of the hitter’s hand by attempting a steal. Let the hitter swing away. Of course, this is not the safest choice. It’s certainly not the conventional choice. However, according to Pete Palmer, the least safe choice is statistically the most efficient choice.

Great strategic opportunities (like first & third with no outs) do not come along very often in baseball. They are not very frequent in ministry either. General Conference 2012, though, seems to be a first-and-third-with-no-outs kind of opportunity. It’s an opportunity for leadership to make the most efficient choices, even if they risk looking bad.

There are three reasons that this is a great strategic opportunity:

1. The problem does not have to be sold. For the first time in my memory, everyone is involved in conversation that is concerned about the shrinking influence of the church.
2. The United Methodist Church, at every level, does not lack resources. Buildings, bank accounts, bottoms in the pew, we have them. We do not lack the resources for the mission; we lack the will for the mission.
3. We only meet every four years. When appropriate, strategic choices bring great change, we have time for the implementation to be experienced before revisiting the choices.

Will we pick the strategy that is “least likely to fail” or will we pick a strategy that allows us to fully participate in the victory of God?

Lessons from Moneyball: Part 1

This is the first installment of a series of posts inspired by the reading of Michael Lewis’s Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. The book tells the story of how the Oakland A’s and general manager Billy Beane used unconventional wisdom to win. Faced with a very low budget, the Beane and the A’s competed with the richest teams in baseball.  The innovative approach was so successful that it changed how teams were put together. Major League Baseball and the United Methodist Church have some things in common. Perhaps, a different kind of sabermetrics can help the UMC move forward.

“The problem,” wrote James, “is that baseball statistics are not pure accomplishments of men against other men, which is what we are in the habit of seeing them as. They are accomplishments of men in combination with the circumstances.” – Moneyball, p. 71

Over the past several months, the United Methodist Church has enjoyed or endured, according to one’s perspective, a conversation regarding statistical analysis of effectiveness. Some have been excited about the prospect of having a way to measure fruitfulness. Others have been concerned that statistical evaluation might be unfairly used to evaluate churches and pastors.

I am fully in the corner of the former. Faith in Jesus has a certain goal orientation (following him, becoming like him, being with him). Our denominational heritage is certainly filled with expectations. Wesley lined out what it means to be more than an “almost Christian” and placed high expectations on leadership. We shouldn’t fear goals or evaluation. They can be means of grace.

In our discussion about statistical measurements and goals, however, we need to be very clear that the statistics we are gathering are meaningfully and explicitly connected to the goal. The Moneyball quote above comes in a discussion about baseball’s defensive statistics. REMEMBER: The ultimate goal in baseball is to score more runs than the opponent. Baseball has, historically, only used a couple of numbers to measure defensive abilities. Fielding percentage, for example, tells us what percentage of the balls hit to a player (called “chances”), which were expected to be outs, were actually converted to outs. Consider the subjective possibilities in that statistic. At the very least, we assume to know what plays a player should make. Also, consider what is left out of this statistic. How do we account for a player’s range (i.e., ability to increase his number of chances)? The fielding range of the quickest shortstops may produce over 30 more chances per season than an average shortstop. The right fielder with the best arm in the game may create 10 more chances because of his willingness to attempt to throw out a runner trying to go from first to third on a single. In other words, fielding percentage tells us very little about a player’s ability to limit the runs scored by the other team. (This is a very abridged, but representative, discussion on baseball’s defensive statistics.)

As we approach General Conference 2012, we need to be very clear about the connection between the our evaluative statistics and our stated goal of making disciples of Jesus Christ for the transformation of the world. Let us be confident that our measurements lead us to faithfulness. If we’re going to draw a bullseye, it needs to be the right target. Many baseball players are aware that fielding percentage has been an important tool to evaluate their defense. Because of this, some have been accused of intentionally not hustling to balls at the edge of their fielding range. By making it to the ball, the scorer may regard it as a chance. If they do not make the play, it will negatively impact their fielding percentage. This obviously does not help the team accomplish the goal of scoring more runs than the opponent, but it protects the player’s evaluation.

As we approach General Conference 2012, may we be clear about our goal and clear about what measurables can help to accomplish that goal.

“Missional” misuse

Occasionally, new ideas or words come into common language, seemingly out of no where. Remember when you didn’t even know that you needed to “tweet?” Sometimes, these ideas or words resonate so widely that the original intended meaning is altered for broader adaptation. Sometimes, these ideas or words are so appealing and used so broadly that they lose meaning.

Over the past several years, “missional” has been used so broadly that I’m not sure that we can find our way back to the distinct flavor that gave the word actual meaning. Michael Frost has covered this very well in his introduction to The Road to Missional. I commend the entire book to you for a deep look at what “missional” was intended to mean.

There are three primary ways that I have witnessed “missional” being misused over the last three years.

1. First, the appeal of the word has led to its misuse within denominational structures. For example, when I first heard someone within my annual conference refer to apportionments as “missional giving,” my heart sank. This idea that had been revolutionary and inspiring was being used as window dressing for something that hadn’t experienced innovation in many decades.

The rationale behind this usage is that apportionment are given so that the church can accomplish the mission of making “disciples of Jesus Christ for the transformation of the world.” I agree with that statement. I also appreciate that the local church I lead has an impact in areas that we would not choose for ourselves. However, to apply the term “missional” to a situation where an institution is broadly accomplishing its mission is simply a misuse. It is not that the mission of the United Methodist Church and missional movement are not related. Certainly, they are. To commandeer missional language in such nonspecific ways will unfortunately limit the impact the missional movement could have.

2. A second common misuse is in reference to evangelistic gatherings. When a group of presumably unchurched people are gathered and a pastor says something in reference to the gospel, this is not a missional gathering.

3. Just as a large gathering with reference to the gospel is not a missional gathering, social action alone is not missional. Alleviating poverty, providing for those in need, and advocating for the powerless are all part of a missional lifestyle. However, they are not missional by themselves.

The second and third misuses of the word derive from the same root. In both situations, the missional movement’s emphasis on incarnational ministry is not taken seriously. Outside of relationship, the large gathering is simply a rally and the act of kindness is simply a good deed. Both are important, but are not necessarily missional.

Christmas Is Not Your Birthday!

If you live on $10 per day, you are among the richest 20% of the world.

The most wonderful time of the year began with a sacrificial gift. God gave his son that we might have life. Today, however, we spend more and more on ourselves, causing more and more problems based in consumerism and gluttony. Meanwhile, many are hungry, hurting, and homeless in our communities and the world.

When Jesus began his earthly ministry, he tied his purpose to Isaiah 61, saying that the Lord anointed him to “preach good news to the poor.” He says that he was sent to set people free, to bring light to dark places, to bind up broken hearts. Our celebration of Christmas should point directly to who Jesus has come to be. If it isn’t good news to the poor, then it isn’t Christmas.

So, this Christmas will be different. During the Sunday’s of Advent, we will be reminded that Christmas Is NOT Your Birthday. We will be challenged to spend an equal amount on those hurting around the world as we spend on our families. If we spend $500 on gifts for family members, we should spend $500 on others. Our gift giving should be sacrificial, meaningful, and in line with Jesus.

Our time together will be based on the book “Christmas Is NOT Your Birthday” by Mike Slaughter. The book is a short, to the point, reminder. You may choose to order the book and read through during the holiday season. Or, you may choose to organize a group to read and study the book together.

May the Advent of our Lord Jesus Christ inspire us to embody his sacrificial love.

Vital Congregations: Measuring Our Death One Lost Worship Attender at a Time

At best, the statistics sought in the Vital Congregations initiative will be unhelpful for most congregations, especially to those congregations that are struggling the most. At worst, the statistics sought in the Vital Congregations initiative will contribute to the continued disappointment and death of congregations, many of whom truly desire “to make disciples of Jesus Christ for the transformation of the world.”

I have no doubt that at the heart of the Vital Congregations initiative is a true desire to help congregations accomplish the mission of the church. I also have no problem with the idea of using statistics as a means of evaluation and accountability. Still, the metrics of the Vital Congregations initiative needs some real rethinking.

The greatest problem with the Vital Congregations initiative is what is being counted. The required statistics are worship attendance, professions of faith, participation in small groups, people in mission, and dollars given to mission. The emphasis on these statistics reflects how deeply we misunderstand our current cultural situation. The base assumption is that if all is well, the organized church will do well. If all is well, then, worship attendance will be up. If all is well and worship attendance is up, then, we will see gains in professions of faith (which primarily come through confirmation) as well. The other three metrics flow from the previous two. If people are in worship and if new professions are made, then we will see more people in small groups, more people in mission, and more dollars given to mission. If those numbers are not up and are not satisfactory, then, there must be a problem.

We traditionally have seen the problems as being either the lazy, uncooperative pastor or the lazy, uncooperative church. Our process for ordination is more stringent and comprehensive as ever. It is difficult to believe that our current pool of pastors is significantly inferior in giftedness and training to those of 40 years ago. Further, while most churches are aging and have specific issues that hold them back, they are still the people of God capable of being captured by God’s mission and learning faithfulness.

There is a problem, and the problem is perpetuated by these metrics. The world has changed before our eyes, and we have not significantly discerned our role in our current cultural situation.

We can no longer assume that our neighbors will come to the church if all is well. In fact, most congregations are increasingly losing contact with their neighbors. As communities change, the church looks less and less like the neighborhoods. All cultural roads no longer lead to the church. Therefore, congregations must take a missionary stance within communities that they have known for decades. Our metrics should reflect the necessary shift in assumptions. Fulfilling the mission of making disciples of Jesus Christ for the transformation of the world in our current situation will require asking different questions.

• How many new relationships have been built?
• What new connections within the community have been made?
• What does transformation of your community look like?

If these questions are not asked first, churches will continue to be frustrated with measuring their death one lost worship attender at a time.

Jesus: the Center of Mission

Over the past two years, the people of St. Mark UMC have taken great steps in connecting in new relationships. First, a group of faithful people of God at St. Mark built relationships with formerly homeless individuals in nearby apartment. Second, two sets of missional interns have allowed us to increase our reach within our neighborhood, our most critical zone for mission. Third, the opening of an Early Learning Center provides opportunity for relationship with over 50 new families. All of this is important and crucial work. Yet, it is not the end.

Our purpose is to make disciples of Jesus Christ so that the world will be transformed. Therefore, our purpose is only accomplished as we bring individuals into relationship with Christ and help them to participate in his mission.

In order for us to fulfill this mission, we must be clear about who Jesus is. If we are inviting people to follow Jesus, we should be clear about who Jesus is. Once we know who Jesus is and what his kingdom looks like (Christology), our purpose is more defined. When our purpose is more defined (missiology), we will learn how to accomplish the mission (ecclesiology). It all starts with Jesus.

During the month of August, we will look intently at Jesus by looking at Colossians 1:15-23. We will discover that Jesus is the image of the unimaginable (1:15), the supernatural superglue (1:17), the fearless leader (1:18), the transporter (1:21-22), and that he is our very purpose (1:23). If we make connection after connection and do not understand Christ, we are misleading our new friends. If our pews are filled every week but we can’t clearly present a way of life reflects Christ, we are simply another fraternal organization.

“Bet on the Inevitable”

Recently, I’ve been interested in a podcast called “Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders” from Stanford University. Most of the topics deal with technology and innovation. However, the major thrust of the podcast is innovation in leadership. So, while some of the technological references may be foreign, the concepts are helpful for visionary leaders in a multitude of disciplines. The podcast is actually a recording of forums presented to students at Stanford.

This morning, I spent time listening to a Q and A with Dan Rosenweig. I’ll let you read his bio. It’s enough to say that he’s been all around this great big world, and he’s seen all kinds of technological innovations. One of his primary points of emphasis to the students was to “bet on the inevitable.” It was the instinct to bet on the inevitable which led him to totally redirect “PC Magazine” to become “Yahoo Internet Life” in 1997 as the internet was catching on. It was this mantra that led him to move to become the CEO of Guitar Hero (who knew that position even existed) as interactive gaming was reaching new heights.

So, what are some of the inevitabilities that you see? You may not bet on all of them by investing time, effort, and resources. However, it may be helpful to begin making a list of inevitabilities. The opportunity may come for you to invest in one or more of them some day.

Here are a few inevitabilities that I see:

• Cities in the South will continue to show more and more economic, ethnic, and religious diversity.
• A high percentage of the churches planted in the great church planting boom of the late 1950′s and early 1960′s will close in the next 20 years.
• Compensation and understanding of ministry within mainline denominations will have to be totally restructured.
• Seminaries will either (1) participate in the dialogue of restructuring ministry and equipping in new ways or (2) wither on the vine.
• The United States will find new life in manufacturing (if I only knew what would be manufactured…).
• I will get another speeding ticket. (If you would like to invest in that inevitability, please contact me.)
• God wins.

Tragedy Compounded

Another incredible tragedy has reminded us of the brokenness of the world. Separate attacks around Oslo, Norway have left over 90 dead. Many of those killed were youth. These attacks cast a pall on the families as well as all of Norway.

In the over 24 hours since the attacks, we have learned a bit about the attacker. The 32-year old Norwegian is vehemently anti-Muslim, deriding the affects of immigrant Muslims to Europe. His history of political and group affiliation, as well as his own words, have shown a great opposition to immigration as a whole. Soon, the perpetrator of this heinous act will “explain” the inexplicable. His attorney expects a statement from his client soon.

We have learned one other thing about the assailant. He considers himself a Christian and has been called a “Christian fundamentalist” by law enforcement. This breaks my heart and reminds me that the Church has done a poor job of discipling in the way of Jesus Christ.

THIS SHOULD BE CLEAR. The way of Jesus Christ, rooted in the Old Testament scripture and in the life of Jesus, is to deal graciously with the stranger. If anyone is to claim the name of Jesus Christ, she or he must surely know the compassion, hospitality, and mercy with which Jesus approached the Samaritan woman and the especially graceful way he dealt with the Roman government. Each of these would have been considered dangerous others, intruders, and cultural boils. Further, in one of the very few times Jesus referenced the end times, he held high those who welcomed the stranger, while those who did not welcome the stranger were sent away to eternal punishment (Matthew 25:31-46).

Part of what confuses us about dealing with strangers in our midst is fear. Naturally, distrust exists that people from other cultures may not have the same values that we do. Generally, we like who we are and do not want that changed. Further, concern over safety and prosperity arises. Will these others try to harm us? Will these others gain what really belongs to us? When we feel these anxieties, it’s helpful to remember 1 John 4:15-18, “perfect love expels all fear.”

15 All who confess that Jesus is the Son of God have God living in them, and they live in God. 16 We know how much God loves us, and we have put our trust in his love.

God is love, and all who live in love live in God, and God lives in them. 17 And as we live in God, our love grows more perfect. So we will not be afraid on the day of judgment, but we can face him with confidence because we live like Jesus here in this world.

18 Such love has no fear, because perfect love expels all fear. If we are afraid, it is for fear of punishment, and this shows that we have not fully experienced his perfect love. 19 We love each other because he loved us first.

Problems with borders and issues dealing with undocumented immigrants have led to legislative action in many states, including Alabama. Certainly, in a developed and orderly culture like the United States, a need exists to find ways to deal with some of the issues surrounding undocumented immigrants. Still, my prayer is that those who follow Christ would champion and support grace over law, mercy over judgment, and love over fear. We do not do so because grace is easier than law; it is not. We do not do this because mercy is easier than judgment; it is not. We do so because we trust that the perfect love of Jesus will cast out our fear.

May the world know us by our love.

Cruise Ship or Aircraft Carrier?

 

Mike Slaughter, in his book Change the World, gives a helpful image for what the church is not supposed to be. He says that the church, as the people of God, should not be like a cruise ship. A cruise ship’s only purpose is to get people on the boat so that the cruise line can be profitable. In order to get people on the boat, the cruise lines provide entertainment, festivities, all-you-can-eat buffets, and tiered cabins for sleeping. At times, churches can fall into the cruise ship mentality. Our desire to get people in the pews/chairs drives us to entertain and offer a wide range of consumer-based services. Shuffleboard, anyone? While fellowship is an important part of discipleship, the church has often mistaken it for the end of discipleship.

This is where a second maritime image of the church comes in handy. Reggie McNeal, while speaking at CATAPULT 2010, advanced the imagery by suggesting that a better image may be of an aircraft carrier. The purpose of an aircraft carrier goes far beyond what happens on the deck of the boat. In fact, the most important work happens away from the aircraft carrier. The carrier is important to fulfilling the mission. However, it isn’t the location of the mission. Instead, the aircraft carry out the mission away from the carrier. The church provides important equipping and support for the mission of God, but the mission is carried out by faithful disciples who are sent into their neighborhoods, workplaces, and schools.

Are we launching disciples? Or, are we just arranging deck chairs?

We Are Not Alone: A Sermon for Pentecost

         You don’t remember your first breath, but it was given to you by God. The process of a newborn beginning to breath is nothing short of miraculous. Within the womb, babies will mimic breathing motions with their mouths. While still in the embryonic fluid, their bodies are being prepared for life on the outside. Medical research provides insights to the process, explaining that lung development happens late in the term, that the placenta provides the oxygen to the unborn baby, that the breathing motions within the womb help to develop the lungs. Still, the instinct of a newborn baby to breath is mysterious. A healthy baby who has just made the transition from womb to world knows to experience “air hunger.” The baby knows the need to fill those lungs up with air. Life is miraculous.

The first chapters of Genesis give an account of the beginnings of everything, except God. God was there when nothing else was. It is an explanation for what appears to be inexplicable. The Creator God creates matter and antimatter. The Creator God creates water and land. The Creator God creates light in the darkness. The Creator God creates vegetation and life of all kinds. That modern science explains how this may have been done does not affect the biblical emphasis of Genesis. The Creator God, identified as both Elohim and Yahweh, is the one who created it all, including humans who were both God’s crowning achievement (as in Genesis 1) and his most intimate creation (as in Genesis 2). In fact, Genesis 2 provides this incredible picture of God forming the first man from the dust, molding him like clay. Then, to animate this figure, to give life to this clay formation, God breathes. (DEEP BREATH) With his very own breath, the Creator God breathed into Adam’s nostrils. The Old Testament’s understanding of God’s spirit was built upon this understanding of God breathing life.

The testimony of Scripture is that our very breath is gift from God. This is why life matters. This is why YOU matter. The Creator God saw fit to fill you with his very own breath.

There are many things in this world to which we assign value. I’m amazed at some of the things that sell at our garage sales. Beat up and banged up and paint pealing and knobs off and plug bent. But we put a 50-cent sticker on it…and, usually, someone buys it. What is not bought is kept for the next yard sale or donated to Goodwill. If we don’t think it will sell next time and if we don’t think that Goodwill will want it, well, we finally, throw it away.

That is NOT how we treat life, though. Our life…our breath are sacred gifts from God.

Dr. Jack Kevorkian died last Friday, June 3. I have great compassion for Dr. Kevorkian, his patients, and anyone who suffers so much that ending life is more attractive than living. The conversation surrounding quality of life issues and natural endings of life is an important one. However, value is not assigned to life because of what we are able to enjoy or even what we are able to contribute to others. The value of our lives was assigned when God breathed life into us.

Of course, Genesis was written in the Hebrew language, which is an incredibly descriptive language. The word for breath used in the story of creation is “RUAH.” The sound of the word is descriptive of its meaning. “RUAH.” That understanding of God breathing life, RUAH, continued through the first century, during the time of Jesus. It is certainly no mistake that John catches the detail of Jesus actions in our Gospel lesson today. “Then, he BREATHED on them and said, ‘Receive the Holy Spirit. If you forgive anyone’s sins, they are forgiven. If you do not forgive them, they are not forgiven.’” Certainly those who witnessed this event, as well as those first hearers of John’s gospel, would have connected the actions of Jesus with the actions of the Creator God in Genesis. God, in Jesus, breathed the Holy Spirit into the disciples and created the church.

RUAH is breath in the Old Testament. It also refers to wind. This understanding is picked up in our reading from Acts. After being commanded by Jesus to await the Holy Spirit, the disciples are huddled in a room. You might can imagine the situation. This clandestine group had lost its leader. The significance that they once believed they had was passed. Though Jesus had been resurrected, they did not know what the future looked like. Surely in the eyes of the world, this group was worthless. The disciples, themselves, surely felt powerless and unsure of their own future.

Then, as they were gathering, Scripture tells us, “there was a sound from heaven like the roaring of a mighty windstorm, and it filled the house where they were sitting. Then, what looked like flames or tongues of fire appeared and settled on each one of them. And everyone present was filled with the Holy Spirit and began speaking in other languages, as the Holy Spirit gave them the ability.”

Whatever perceived worthlessness or powerlessness the disciples experienced was surely wiped away in an instance. The power of God had been poured out among them. The Holy Spirit descended upon them assuring them of God’s presence with them. This rushing wind, this RUAH, had given the first disciples life. The church was born. To this day, the church of Jesus Christ lives because of the Holy Spirit. This rushing wind that gave life to the first church on Pentecost gives life to us today.

Of three persons that make up the Trinity (Father, Son, Holy Spirit), the Holy Spirit can be the most perplexing. Yet, the most basic understanding provides us with an understanding that we are not alone in this world. Reniero Cantalamessa, the priest of the Papal household says, “[T]he Holy Spirit is the personification of this mystery of God who is, at the same time, absolute power and immeasurable tenderness, irresistible movement and infinite rest.” Because the rushing wind of the Holy Spirit descended upon the earliest church, we know that God continues to be with even the most modern expressions of church.

This is not to be taken lightly. God breathed into the church. Therefore, the church, this church, that church, matters because it was given life by God. Therefore, the church’s life cannot be evaluated on its land, or its buildings, or its budgets. No, that earliest church had none of those. Neither can the church’s life be evaluated on the age, social influence, or abilities of its members. The earliest church would not have scored well on that list either. Instead, the church of Jesus Christ is sacred because of the gift of God’s spirit being poured out on Pentecost.

The first days of that earliest church, that group of disciples, must have been like the first breaths of an infant. Gasping, hungry for more of the air that had filled its lungs. The earliest church was powered by this wind, this breath, this Holy Spirit. And, to this day, so are we.

St. Mark matters because God has breathed life into us. May we continue to hunger for the air of the Holy Spirit that gives us life and significance.