This is the second installment of a series of posts inspired by the reading of Michael Lewis’s Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. The book tells the story of how the Oakland A’s and general manager Billy Beane used unconventional wisdom to win. Faced with a very low budget, the Beane and the A’s competed with the richest teams in baseball. The innovative approach was so successful that it changed how teams were put together. Major League Baseball and the United Methodist Church have some things in common. Perhaps, a different kind of sabermetrics can help the UMC move forward.
“Managers tend to pick a strategy that is least likely to fail rather than pick a strategy that is most efficient,” said Palmer. “The pain of looking bad is worse that the gain of making the best move.” Pete Palmer in Moneyball, p. 80
So, there are runners on first and third with no outs. How does the manager call the situation? Do you call a straight steal? Do you hit and run? Do you call for a bunt?
Actually, the most efficient call to make is allowing the hitter to swing away. You do not have to give up an out for a run by sacrificing. You do not have to take the bat out of the hitter’s hand by attempting a steal. Let the hitter swing away. Of course, this is not the safest choice. It’s certainly not the conventional choice. However, according to Pete Palmer, the least safe choice is statistically the most efficient choice.
Great strategic opportunities (like first & third with no outs) do not come along very often in baseball. They are not very frequent in ministry either. General Conference 2012, though, seems to be a first-and-third-with-no-outs kind of opportunity. It’s an opportunity for leadership to make the most efficient choices, even if they risk looking bad.
There are three reasons that this is a great strategic opportunity:
- The problem does not have to be sold. For the first time in my memory, everyone is involved in conversation that is concerned about the shrinking influence of the church.
- The United Methodist Church, at every level, does not lack resources. Buildings, bank accounts, bottoms in the pew, we have them. We do not lack the resources for the mission; we lack the will for the mission.
- We only meet every four years. When appropriate, strategic choices bring great change, we have time for the implementation to be experienced before revisiting the choices.
Will we pick the strategy that is “least likely to fail” or will we pick a strategy that allows us to fully participate in the victory of God?
